Wed, Mar 31, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 17 | 05 | 326 |
| WPG | 06 | 116 | 05 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 10:47TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 16:40TORAlexander KerfootSHAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.25 xG3–0
- P2 17:15WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:29WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:47WPGMathieu Perreault: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 13:53WPGBlake Wheeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:26TORPierre Engvall: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:15TORJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:21TORTJ Brodie: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:29WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:49WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews10:37
xG 1.44–0.02 (99%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander9:50
xG 0.70–0.08 (89%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot5:10
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev5:44
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dermott7:13
xG 1.53–0.18 (90%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Holl14:44
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly12:11
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Lewis – Perreault4:15
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Copp – Dubois2:20
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton7:18
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor11:35
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley9:34
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk15:22
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Poolman – Morrissey11:08
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).