Tue, Mar 16, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 47 | 07 | 08 | 422 |
| COL | 210 | 213 | 413 | 836 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Samuel Girard · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 2:16ANATroy TerryAssists: Trevor Zegras, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 4:33ANADanton HeinenAssists: Ben Hutton, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 7:02COLNazem KadriAssists: Brandon Saad, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P1 15:59ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P1 19:42ANADerek GrantUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–2
- P2 11:25COLMikko RantanenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 18:26COLNazem KadriAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Joonas Donskoi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 1:01COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 3:24COLSamuel GirardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–6
- P3 16:48COLPierre-Edouard BellemareENAssists: Nazem Kadri, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–7
- P3 18:45COLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:25ANAJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42COLGabriel Landeskog: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 2:15COLGreg Pateryn: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:06ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:28ANANicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:28COLNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:29ANAJani Hakanpää: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras8:45
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Jones2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Heinen8:21
xG 0.10–0.23 (29%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström5:27
xG 0.05–0.23 (19%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Hakanpää15:00
xG 0.12–0.41 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura14:34
xG 0.40–0.84 (32%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
- Hutton – Larsson13:06
xG 0.34–1.09 (24%)attempts 6–21goals 1–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:04
xG 1.13–0.14 (89%)attempts 18–4goals 2–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:10
xG 0.78–0.04 (95%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Calvert – Bellemare – O'Connor9:11
xG 0.38–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Nichushkin – Jost9:16
xG 0.15–0.43 (25%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Toews7:03
xG 0.73–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Toews – Girard7:22
xG 0.68–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Renouf10:21
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).