Thu, Apr 1, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 115 | 112 | 238 |
| TBL | 115 | 07 | 212 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 9:04CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Eric Robinson, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 10:54CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Max Domi, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 14:49TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Patrick Maroon, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 15:54TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:59CBJAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:58CBJMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:35CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:35TBLMathieu Joseph: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:03TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:34CBJLiam Foudy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Laine – Robinson9:31
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Texier13:16
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Roslovic10:06
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Nash – Dalpe – Foudy5:58
xG 0.07–0.28 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski18:46
xG 1.03–0.67 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Kukan – Lehtonen10:38
xG 0.75–0.62 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov15:51
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Coleman – Goodrow6:15
xG 0.30–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde4:11
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Palat – Gourde – Point7:23
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point4:06
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Sergachev2:02
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hedman5:58
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev9:17
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).