Fri, Apr 2, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 117 | 09 | 05 | 1 | 238 |
| WPG | 010 | 110 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:16TORTravis DermottAssists: Jason Spezza, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 11:50WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 2. TOR Jason Spezza scored
- 3. WPG Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 5. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:20TORJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:01TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:35WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:17WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:27WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews13:50
xG 1.03–0.30 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot7:22
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev8:20
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander12:47
xG 0.59–0.83 (42%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:03
xG 0.83–0.40 (67%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly17:41
xG 1.21–0.82 (60%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Dermott11:14
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Lewis – Perreault7:20
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor14:16
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stastny – Dubois11:04
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton12:41
xG 0.16–0.88 (15%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey18:34
xG 1.07–0.76 (59%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley11:12
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Forbort – Pionk17:47
xG 0.49–1.59 (23%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).