Sat, Apr 3, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 07 | 112 | 126 |
| TBL | 214 | 06 | 09 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Patrick Maroon, Andreas Borgman · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 7:26TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 4:00DETAdam ErneAssists: Frans Nielsen, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:38DETFilip Zadina: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:10TBLRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:54DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:58DETAdam Erne: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 17:53TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Nielsen – Namestnikov2:27
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Smith4:37
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Erne3:56
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Glendening – Mantha – Rasmussen3:35
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeKeyser – Hronek13:43
xG 0.92–1.13 (45%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Nemeth – Merrill15:47
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Stecher8:51
xG 0.21–0.62 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde9:03
xG 0.75–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton7:14
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Johnson – Palat – Point12:16
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli11:12
xG 0.26–0.56 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev12:21
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote12:47
xG 0.70–0.39 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Borgman3:20
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).