Sun, Apr 4, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 015 | 18 | 11 | 331 |
| ANA | 28 | 06 | 06 | 00 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31ANASam CarrickAssists: Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 8:58ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: John Hayden, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 14:47ANADerek GrantAssists: Trevor Zegras, Max Jones · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:09ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:47ARIJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Johan Larsson · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:29ARIAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:05ARIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:46ANAAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46ARIMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:41ANAJamie Drysdale: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Dvorak – Keller9:33
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Bunting – Garland17:04
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Pederson – Keller3:34
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Fischer3:21
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun21:14
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin19:33
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Gross11:44
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Jones – Zegras10:58
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Backes – Grant – Deslauriers11:31
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Comtois – Volkov – Lundeström10:09
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Heinen13:41
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Manson – Drysdale19:23
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Larsson16:40
xG 0.59–0.82 (42%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
- Fowler – Hakanpää18:22
xG 0.35–0.61 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).