Tue, Apr 6, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Rangers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 118 | 113 | 214 | 445 |
| NYR | 411 | 17 | 37 | 825 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35NYRColin BlackwellAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:28NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 9:58NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 10:38PITJared McCannPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 19:42NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 12:20NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–5
- P2 12:36PITMike MathesonAssists: Colton Sceviour, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 6:10NYRKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Colin Blackwell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–6
- P3 8:04PITJake GuentzelAssists: Mike Matheson, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.09 xG3–6
- P3 10:22NYRAdam FoxSHAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–7
- P3 10:41NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Filip Chytil, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–8
- P3 18:36PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Radim Zohorna, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–8
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:13PITRadim Zohorna: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:32NYRRyan Lindgren: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:22NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:22PITMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:34PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:57NYRRyan Lindgren: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:29PITJake Guentzel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:24NYRPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:59PITZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:59NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McCann – Rodrigues11:16
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Zohorna8:06
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lafferty – Aston-Reese9:38
xG 0.60–0.52 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:02
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ceci13:14
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson2:08
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:02
xG 0.81–0.73 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich11:42
xG 0.92–0.30 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Strome – Panarin6:34
xG 0.18–0.32 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Rooney – Kravtsov7:18
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière12:41
xG 0.30–0.94 (24%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:45
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Hajek14:31
xG 0.41–0.60 (40%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller16:25
xG 0.25–1.29 (16%)attempts 6–22goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).