Wed, Apr 7, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Edmonton Oilers 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 117 | 18 | 210 | 435 |
| OTT | 07 | 112 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:25OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:26EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Ethan Bear · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 1:02OTTConnor BrownAssists: Mike Reilly, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:54EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:59EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:44OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:37EDMEthan Bear: Interference2 min
- P1 17:54OTTClark Bishop: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:43OTTArtem Zub: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:11EDMJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Shore – Khaira9:19
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi15:12
xG 0.75–0.79 (49%)attempts 17–22goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto – Kahun9:31
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Turris – Chiasson – Kassian9:20
xG 0.09–0.34 (20%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bear – Jones9:19
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse18:22
xG 0.80–0.93 (46%)attempts 20–23goals 1–1
- Russell – Larsson15:32
xG 0.20–0.52 (28%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Norris – Tkachuk9:56
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Brown – Bishop5:54
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle7:08
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Dadonov – Formenton6:31
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Brown6:24
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev19:43
xG 0.75–0.76 (50%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Reilly – Zub13:56
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).