Wed, Apr 7, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 017 | 110 | 234 |
| TOR | 113 | 04 | 215 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Zach Hyman · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 2:15MTLCorey PerryAssists: Nick Suzuki, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 2:32TORTJ BrodieAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:21TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 17:45MTLCorey PerryAssists: Josh Anderson, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:18MTLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:25MTLJake Evans: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:13TORAuston Matthews: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Danault – Kotkaniemi10:03
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Perry – Anderson – Suzuki10:46
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans5:14
xG 0.04–0.24 (15%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Toffoli – Drouin10:33
xG 0.79–1.52 (34%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson2:15
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Mete – Romanov9:11
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Petry – Kulak14:05
xG 0.70–1.12 (39%)attempts 18–18goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Galchenyuk – Mikheyev10:35
xG 1.13–0.47 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews14:33
xG 0.88–0.53 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot6:27
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Engvall – Barabanov8:27
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dermott10:59
xG 1.04–0.23 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Brodie – Rielly17:58
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:07
xG 0.85–0.70 (55%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).