Thu, Apr 8, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 412 | 211 | 07 | 630 |
| CBJ | 118 | 19 | 29 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58TBLBlake ColemanAssists: Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:41TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 5:41TBLBarclay GoodrowAssists: Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P1 17:21CBJMichael Del ZottoAssists: Jack Roslovic, Elvis Merzlikins · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P1 19:59TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 4:54TBLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–1
- P2 17:08CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P2 18:56TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow · Slap, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 10:41CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Alexandre Texier, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 19:14CBJMax DomiAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Dean Kukan · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:29CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:03TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:56CBJJack Roslovic: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:48CBJAlexandre Texier: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:29TBLCal Foote: Instigator2 min
- P3 7:29TBLCal Foote: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:29TBLCal Foote: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 7:29CBJStefan Matteau: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:43CBJJack Roslovic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Roslovic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde11:22
xG 1.85–0.17 (92%)attempts 20–4goals 4–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point9:30
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Johnson – Colton8:49
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:58
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev2:39
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Thomas13:01
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Cernak – Sergachev5:01
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Atkinson – Grigorenko – Roslovic11:32
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Dalpe – Matteau – Foudy5:01
xG 0.07–0.32 (17%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Laine11:36
xG 0.56–1.07 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 1–3
- Foligno – Texier – Robinson9:59
xG 0.28–0.92 (23%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gavrikov15:51
xG 0.71–0.33 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Kukan – Lehtonen14:39
xG 0.32–1.22 (21%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
- Jones – Werenski16:42
xG 0.43–1.73 (20%)attempts 13–18goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).