Wed, May 19, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 210 | 06 | 221 |
| CGY | 39 | 210 | 19 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 12:16CGYDillon DubeAssists: Derek Ryan, Brett Ritchie · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 16:18CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–3
- P2 5:14CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Derek Ryan, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 8:34VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Jack Rathbone · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 9:32VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 10:29CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 3:29CGYConnor MackeyAssists: Brett Ritchie, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:11CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:11VANJalen Chatfield: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:01CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26CGYJuuso Välimäki: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:42CGYMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:27VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:09CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:14VANJalen Chatfield: Interference2 min
- P3 19:35CGYAdam Ruzicka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Highmore – Lind6:14
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Boyd – Vesey – Lockwood5:17
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Miller – Vesey – Lockwood2:39
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Graovac – Hawryluk – Michaelis3:18
xG 0.02–0.51 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Rathbone7:53
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Chatfield8:48
xG 0.69–1.32 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Hamonic – Hughes8:08
xG 0.09–1.28 (6%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Phillips – Ruzicka6:40
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk6:26
xG 0.93–0.57 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Nordstrom – Mangiapane4:29
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Ryan – Dube3:07
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev10:15
xG 1.84–0.16 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 3–0
- Stone – Mackey6:49
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Andersson – Välimäki9:46
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).