Fri, Apr 9, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 4, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 111 | 37 | 426 |
| VGK | 422 | 110 | 25 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:41VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Nicolas Roy, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P1 6:59VGKKeegan KolesarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 8:44VGKReilly SmithSHAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 4:10VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–5
- P2 19:07ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 2:42ARIDryden HuntAssists: Phil Kessel, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 3:40ARIClayton KellerAssists: Phil Kessel, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 9:44VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–6
- P3 9:59ARIMichael BuntingAssists: Phil Kessel, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 19:05VGKMax PaciorettyENAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:30ARIChristian Fischer: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:25VGKWilliam Carrier: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:24ARIDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:11VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Dvorak – Keller2:00
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Brassard – Pitlick – Crouse9:25
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Bunting – Garland12:01
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – Larsson – Hunt8:52
xG 0.05–0.97 (5%)attempts 2–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:18
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin15:23
xG 0.75–0.83 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Demers – Oesterle13:05
xG 0.60–1.43 (29%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Tuch – Kolesar9:09
xG 1.15–0.30 (79%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy11:41
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:57
xG 0.58–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:40
xG 0.40–0.39 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Hague16:20
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Martinez – Theodore15:13
xG 1.55–1.25 (55%)attempts 17–21goals 2–2
- Pietrangelo – McNabb15:17
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).