Sat, Apr 10, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 216 | 03 | 428 |
| CBJ | 25 | 07 | 114 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03CBJMichael Del ZottoAssists: Alexandre Texier, Zac Dalpe · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 3:13CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 10:13CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Calvin de Haan, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:02CHICarl SoderbergAssists: David Kampf, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 3:07CHIWyatt KalynukAssists: Pius Suter, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 16:40CHIDylan StromeGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:11CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Max Domi · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:56CBJMikko Lehtonen: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:18CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55CHIDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:07CBJMax Domi: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 7:58CBJMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:25CBJMikko Lehtonen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Carpenter – Kampf5:22
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Kubalik – Kurashev6:52
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Carpenter – Kampf3:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Hagel – Suter9:13
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Kalynuk4:27
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- de Haan – Murphy3:04
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Kalynuk3:57
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Grigorenko – Roslovic11:39
xG 1.32–0.43 (75%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Matteau – Stenlund – Sherwood6:11
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Dalpe – Texier – Robinson8:52
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Laine12:11
xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Jones15:32
xG 1.38–0.70 (66%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Carlsson – Lehtonen7:02
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Harrington – Gavrikov7:13
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).