Thu, May 13, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 1, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 014 | 02 | 125 |
| CGY | 29 | 010 | 29 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02VANMatthew HighmoreAssists: Travis Hamonic, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 3:36CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 5:17CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Joakim Nordstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:33CGYElias LindholmAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 16:37CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 14:11VANJimmy Vesey: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:41VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:41CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:59VANJimmy Vesey: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:59VANJimmy Vesey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoyd – Vesey – MacEwen9:55
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Graovac – Hawryluk – Michaelis7:48
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander8:22
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Highmore – Boeser10:34
xG 0.49–0.64 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hughes17:34
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Myers – Juolevi14:16
xG 0.59–0.72 (45%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Edler – Schmidt10:51
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk13:54
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Leivo – Ritchie – Gawdin6:28
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube8:25
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Nordstrom – Mangiapane12:07
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev19:34
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Stone – Kylington12:24
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Andersson14:17
xG 0.57–0.93 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).