Sun, Apr 11, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 226 |
| NYI | 217 | 06 | 07 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 19:52NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 10:23NYRLibor HajekAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 12:16NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vitali Kravtsov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:13NYIRyan PulockGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:23NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:18NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 4:42NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:44NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:54NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:03NYRAdam Fox: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:31NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:31NYRPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Kravtsov5:31
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Kreider – Rooney – Howden2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Rooney – Howden2:37
xG 0.08–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich4:57
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lindgren3:06
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Hajek10:23
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Trouba – Miller14:12
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:12
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Eberle – Barzal9:43
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:31
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:21
xG 0.07–0.68 (9%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Mayfield3:23
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Leddy – Mayfield8:57
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Greene – Dobson5:45
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).