Mon, Apr 12, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 014 | 05 | 226 |
| OTT | 27 | 07 | 210 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:25WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Derek Forbort, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 11:03OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Josh Norris, Thomas Chabot · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 18:38OTTConnor BrownAssists: Chris Tierney, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:10OTTEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 16:12OTTBrady TkachukUnassisted · Snap, 0.37 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:08OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:32WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 8:32OTTJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:57WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:30OTTJoshua Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:26OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:00OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:04WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:03OTTMichael Amadio: Holding2 min
- P3 14:22WPGAndrew Copp: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:22OTTChris Tierney: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Lewis – Harkins4:58
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Dubois10:23
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton7:34
xG 0.01–0.09 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Connor11:04
xG 0.07–0.60 (10%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Poolman – Morrissey13:26
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk12:55
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley9:53
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Paul – White9:41
xG 0.62–0.07 (90%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Tierney – Brown – Formenton8:11
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Amadio – Stützle7:30
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk8:36
xG 0.31–0.57 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev17:31
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Brown – Mete7:48
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub11:31
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).