Tue, Apr 13, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 18 | 014 | 11 | 328 |
| TOR | 17 | 06 | 112 | 01 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37CGYJuuso VälimäkiAssists: Milan Lucic, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:37TORZach HymanAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 0:34CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 6:17TORAlexander KerfootAssists: John Tavares, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:36CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:38TORScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:38CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:27TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:09TORJustin Holl: Holding2 min
- P3 10:11CGYRasmus Andersson: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Nordstrom9:58
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:12
xG 0.56–0.51 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Leivo – Ritchie – Ryan7:26
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube8:51
xG 0.32–0.35 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Välimäki13:15
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Giordano – Tanev17:51
xG 0.54–0.67 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson19:38
xG 0.60–0.80 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Mikheyev4:59
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Marner – Matthews13:31
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Sabourin – Robertson3:08
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev5:28
xG 0.11–0.31 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:56
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Holl20:26
xG 0.54–0.73 (42%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dermott12:03
xG 0.13–0.58 (18%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).