Wed, Apr 14, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 09 | 215 | 335 |
| OTT | 19 | 010 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19OTTNick PaulAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 3:24WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:07WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 9:39WPGTrevor LewisSHGWGAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
- P3 19:50OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:38WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:27OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:05WPGPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:46OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:04OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:55WPGPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:44WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Dubois8:22
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins7:11
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Dubois2:58
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton8:26
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey14:04
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley12:51
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk15:06
xG 0.60–0.82 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Paul – White3:50
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:31
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Paul – Amadio3:29
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Amadio – Stützle3:46
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMete – Bernard-Docker8:39
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Mete2:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Chabot12:51
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).