Thu, Apr 15, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 06 | 18 | 120 |
| CAR | 16 | 214 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:26CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:14CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 5:34CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Brett Pesce, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 9:30NSHErik HaulaSHAssists: Colton Sissons, Ben Harpur · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 17:22CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:54CARJake Bean: Boarding2 min
- P1 1:45NSHMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:04CARCedric Paquette: Interference2 min
- P1 19:42CARJesper Fast: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:42NSHRyan Johansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:31CARJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:23CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P2 16:23NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P3 5:32CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:32NSHMatt Benning: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:51NSHNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lorentz won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:02
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Johansen – Grimaldi – Arvidsson6:51
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin7:47
xG 0.12–0.27 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Haula – Cousins – Pitlick7:53
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Davies3:36
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Benning – Harpur3:00
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ellis – Davies2:14
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Martinook – Necas7:59
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Fast – Aho – Svechnikov8:35
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Foegele7:52
xG 0.68–0.62 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Paquette – Lorentz – Geekie8:53
xG 0.04–0.56 (7%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin12:26
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pesce – Bean2:00
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Bean9:55
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).