Fri, Feb 12, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 05 | 310 | 427 |
| ARI | 09 | 18 | 08 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28STLJustin FaulkPPAssists: David Perron, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 8:44ARIJohan LarssonAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 13:05STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:52STLIvan BarbashevENAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–1
- P3 19:35STLBrayden SchennENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:48ARIChristian Fischer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:01STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min
- P2 2:10STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 15:22STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
- P3 6:08ARIJohan Larsson: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Barbashev6:21
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Schwartz2:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sundqvist – Sanford5:02
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sanford – Barbashev2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn10:56
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug12:33
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko13:23
xG 0.12–0.61 (16%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Fischer – Hayton6:36
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller11:10
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Hunt8:15
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Crouse9:36
xG 0.08–0.65 (11%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin7:14
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun5:08
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Chychrun12:01
xG 0.19–0.18 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).