Sat, Apr 17, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 211 | 04 | 07 | 222 |
| ARI | 010 | 210 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23STLSammy BlaisAssists: David Perron, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:14STLTyler BozakPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 1:41ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 10:34ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 4:00ARIMichael BuntingGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:20ARINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:28STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P2 10:19STLSammy Blais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:33STLSammy Blais: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barbashev won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Blais11:38
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Bozak – Sanford8:07
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Schenn – Schwartz2:06
xG 0.07–0.16 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:15
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Krug – Dunn2:03
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parayko – Walman14:26
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug15:48
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Hunt11:11
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Bunting – Fischer – Pederson7:41
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Crouse10:05
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller10:59
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin14:16
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:38
xG 0.97–0.52 (65%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Hjalmarsson – Demers13:52
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).