Sun, Apr 18, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 1, Philadelphia Flyers 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 09 | 013 | 12 | 128 |
| PHI | 08 | 015 | 06 | 01 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 2:23NYINick LeddyGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:36NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:57PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:09PHIWade Allison: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Dal Colle12:32
xG 0.35–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Eberle – Barzal5:07
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas6:17
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal4:45
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Leddy4:46
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:36
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Mayfield3:54
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny8:35
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Allison – Farabee7:29
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Lindblom – Twarynski2:22
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier12:08
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Sanheim13:55
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov4:46
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).