Mon, Apr 19, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 210 | 25 | 524 |
| ARI | 17 | 010 | 17 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:28ARIChristian FischerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:37MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Marcus Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 9:38MINMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 1:15ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 6:20MINKevin FialaAssists: Carson Soucy, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 17:53MINJonas BrodinENAssists: Mathew Dumba, Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.50 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:53ARIJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:08ARIConor Garland: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:58MINIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:11ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:37
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Fiala9:56
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov9:39
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Parise – Bonino – Sturm10:28
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Soucy14:14
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:33
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:18
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Larsson – Hunt10:44
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller12:30
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fischer – Crouse8:59
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Hayden – Bunting – Pederson9:21
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun18:04
xG 1.00–0.63 (61%)attempts 23–7goals 2–1
- Hjalmarsson – Demers12:41
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin15:07
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).