Sun, Apr 18, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 013 | 211 | 236 |
| BUF | 19 | 19 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26BUFArttu RuotsalainenAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:18BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 8:02BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 10:18PITJason ZuckerAssists: Jeff Carter, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 18:12BUFRasmus AsplundENAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
- P3 19:36PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:19PITJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:54PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:59BUFCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:12PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:46BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:30PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Zucker – McCann10:27
xG 0.63–0.03 (95%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Blueger – Rodrigues – Aston-Reese9:20
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel16:28
xG 0.99–1.18 (46%)attempts 25–17goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Jankowski – Zohorna5:23
xG 0.04–0.35 (9%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino10:01
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Matheson – Marino2:32
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Letang – Matheson3:23
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Skinner – Reinhart2:04
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson8:44
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Eakin – Sheahan – Rieder4:59
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt9:35
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin16:45
xG 0.97–0.74 (57%)attempts 16–23goals 1–1
- Miller – Bryson13:50
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson13:08
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).