Sun, May 9, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 1, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 03 | 112 | 05 | 120 |
| CGY | 110 | 318 | 28 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Mark Giordano, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:17CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 4:38CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 10:05CGYMichael StoneAssists: Glenn Gawdin, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 11:06OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 6:45CGYDillon DubeAssists: Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 13:53CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:20OTTArtem Zub: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:20CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:48CGYMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:11CGYNikita Nesterov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:21CGYBrett Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:45OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Paul – White9:42
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Brown – Pinto – Stützle11:11
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk12:39
xG 0.40–0.83 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
- Dzingel – Tierney – Formenton8:26
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker2:51
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Alsing – Zub2:57
xG 0.14–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Alsing8:48
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk14:23
xG 0.90–0.14 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Backlund – Nordstrom – Mangiapane8:46
xG 0.74–0.18 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Monahan – Ryan – Dube11:09
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Lucic – Ritchie – Gawdin10:17
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev17:26
xG 1.18–0.31 (79%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Stone – Kylington14:01
xG 1.03–0.30 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Nesterov – Andersson17:01
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).