Fri, Apr 2, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 15 | 010 | 227 |
| COL | 210 | 111 | 018 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24COLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 3:50STLMike HoffmanAssists: Brayden Schenn, David Perron · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:43COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 13:11COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Jacob MacDonald · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 17:16STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:23STLKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:31STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:51COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:24STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:05STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:38COLAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:23STLZachary Sanford: Holding2 min
- P2 16:02COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47COLSamuel Girard: Throwing equipment2 min
- P3 15:08COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:36STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Hoffman – Schenn10:49
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Bozak – Clifford – Barbashev2:52
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Sanford – Kyrou – Thomas5:28
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:49
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dunn11:12
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman7:54
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Krug – Dunn2:14
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:30
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky9:30
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Bellemare – Sherwood5:40
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Compher – Jost8:03
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Makar3:03
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Renouf – MacDonald2:18
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard12:29
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).