Thu, Apr 22, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 3, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 07 | 17 | 325 |
| VAN | 07 | 012 | 012 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17OTTTim StützlePPGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:57OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 18:30OTTConnor BrownENAssists: Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:56VANTravis Hamonic: Instigator2 min
- P1 4:56VANTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:56VANTravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P1 5:42OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:01VANMatthew Highmore: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:52VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P1 15:00VANJake Virtanen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:07OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:36OTTJoshua Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:36VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:36OTTJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:10OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:39VANBo Horvat: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – White – Stützle6:00
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:33
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Tierney – White2:26
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Tierney – Paul3:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zaitsev15:28
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Brown – Mete7:40
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub11:55
xG 0.34–0.81 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Boyd – Vesey – Virtanen2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser5:39
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Highmore – Hoglander2:37
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sutter – Virtanen – Highmore3:28
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Schmidt11:10
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Hughes2:36
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:40
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).