Wed, Mar 3, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Arizona Coyotes 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 312 | 04 | 323 |
| LAK | 011 | 113 | 118 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:26ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 10:59LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:40ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Conor Garland, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 12:53ARIJohan LarssonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 13:47LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Mikey Anderson, Andreas Athanasiou · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:20ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:05LAKMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25ARIMichael Chaput: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:32LAKTobias Bjornfot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49ARIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:25ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:52LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Vilardi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Brassard – Larsson – Caggiula9:09
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
- Chaput – Fischer – Crouse8:37
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Garland13:40
xG 0.73–0.88 (45%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dvorak – Keller11:31
xG 0.45–0.63 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun16:03
xG 0.61–0.53 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Oesterle12:53
xG 0.71–0.74 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin13:15
xG 0.47–1.08 (30%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Athanasiou – Vilardi10:31
xG 0.90–0.10 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:06
xG 0.88–0.56 (61%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Wagner – Moore – Lizotte7:24
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kempe – Amadio – Grundstrom8:24
xG 0.23–0.63 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Bjornfot12:46
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 24–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:17
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Maatta – Walker9:47
xG 0.56–0.38 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).