Sun, Mar 7, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 213 | 17 | 327 |
| PHI | 114 | 08 | 015 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:04PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 15:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:44WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: John Carlson, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:15WSHNick JensenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:40WSHConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00PHITravis Konecny: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:56WSHZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:25WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:08WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:10
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Eller – Panik – Sheary11:06
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Vrana – Sprong9:57
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:57
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen12:08
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Schultz – Orlov13:56
xG 0.40–0.50 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – Dillon13:18
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Patrick10:08
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny11:43
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee10:48
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 6–15goals 1–2
- Aube-Kubel – Lindblom – Bunnaman8:25
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Gustafsson12:21
xG 0.64–0.27 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov2:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov13:26
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).