Tue, Apr 27, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 311 | 312 | 17 | 730 |
| CHI | 218 | 111 | 111 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28TBLErik CernakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:15TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 11:59CHIBrandon HagelAssists: Kirby Dach, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 15:04TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–1
- P1 17:59CHIWyatt KalynukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 6:40TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 9:21TBLBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P2 13:39TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–2
- P2 19:28CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Patrick Kane, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–3
- P3 13:51CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.19 xG6–4
- P3 19:09TBLAlex KillornAssists: Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.01 xG7–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:59TBLCal Foote: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:29TBLCal Foote: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:30TBLLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P1 15:05TBLLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:05CHINikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:00CHIDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:21TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:21CHIConnor Murphy: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:21CHIConnor Murphy: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:22TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:24CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:11TBLMathieu Joseph: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:41TBLMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:41CHIWyatt Kalynuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Barré-Boulet10:32
xG 1.10–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde6:48
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–2
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli8:09
xG 0.41–0.57 (41%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton7:45
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Foote4:41
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak6:35
xG 0.23–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Hedman – Foote3:49
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Strome – Suter4:01
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- DeBrincat – Hagel – Dach6:06
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Connolly – Kampf – Hardman6:28
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Hinostroza – Kurashev9:48
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Stillman2:09
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Stillman – Kalynuk5:58
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Keith – Murphy2:06
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).