Wed, Apr 28, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 26 | 16 | 322 |
| OTT | 111 | 412 | 110 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04OTTVictor MeteAssists: Alex Formenton, Shane Pinto · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 0:38OTTChris TierneyAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 1:10OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 5:43VANTyler MyersAssists: Olli Juolevi, Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 6:36OTTThomas ChabotGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Alex Formenton · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 7:23VANJake VirtanenAssists: Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 16:13OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 14:33OTTColin WhiteENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–6
- P3 17:43VANBrandon SutterAssists: Tyler Myers, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:05OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:05VANZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:30OTTShane Pinto: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:52VANJayce Hawryluk: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:00VANZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:59VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:44OTTNick Paul: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:44VANTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:44OTTNick Paul: Playing without a helmet2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Motte – Virtanen3:08
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Boyd – Highmore – Boeser3:38
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boyd – Virtanen – Highmore2:41
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Motte – Boeser4:32
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schmidt – Juolevi3:28
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Juolevi7:39
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 1–2
- Myers – Hughes4:45
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDzingel – Tierney – Brown11:38
xG 1.34–0.13 (91%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Paul – Formenton – Pinto7:26
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:15
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Dadonov – White – Stützle11:21
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev18:17
xG 0.98–0.16 (86%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Brannstrom – Zub12:53
xG 1.17–0.45 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Brown – Mete11:06
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).