Thu, Apr 29, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 217 | 112 | 12 | 439 |
| CHI | 19 | 17 | 18 | 03 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:47CHIAdam GaudetteAssists: Dylan Strome, Dominik Kubalik · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:47FLAAlexander WennbergPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:09CHIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Brandon Hagel, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 13:09FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Brandon Montour, Grigori Denisenko · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 9:09FLABrandon MontourAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:42CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Wyatt Kalynuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 4:08FLASam BennettGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:22FLAJuho Lammikko: Interference2 min
- P1 19:31FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 6:02CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:22CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:44CHIKirby Dach: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:44CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Barkov – Denisenko8:57
xG 0.50–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett9:15
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Vatrano – Heponiemi10:38
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Acciari – Lomberg8:28
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Forsling13:40
xG 1.05–0.43 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Montour – Nutivaara9:19
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 15–2goals 2–1
- Yandle – Gudas8:07
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kubalik – Strome – Gaudette8:05
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Hagel – Dach10:25
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Kubalik – Strome2:14
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Connolly – Kampf – Hardman6:26
xG 0.09–0.41 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stillman – Beaudin11:24
xG 0.58–0.66 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Keith – Kalynuk15:50
xG 0.69–0.88 (44%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
- Murphy – Zadorov15:57
xG 0.26–0.85 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).