Sat, May 1, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 111 | 13 | 00 | 223 |
| MTL | 08 | 010 | 218 | 13 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:52OTTTim StützleAssists: Artem Zub, Colin White · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 5:51OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 8:12MTLJeff PetryAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 14:25MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 2:25MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Jake Evans · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:38OTTErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:11OTTJosh Norris: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:11MTLAlexander Romanov: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:08MTLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:20MTLPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:21OTTShane Pinto: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:36OTTNikita Zaitsev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Paul – Pinto2:13
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Paul – Amadio – Pinto5:04
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Amadio – White – Stützle2:16
xG 0.20–0.16 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Dzingel – Tierney – Brown10:28
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Mete12:43
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev21:47
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub9:42
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Armia – Suzuki10:24
xG 1.00–0.35 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Kotkaniemi9:38
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Lehkonen – Evans2:01
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Evans – Caufield8:13
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson15:07
xG 1.53–0.73 (68%)attempts 30–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Romanov16:05
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Merrill – Kulak13:04
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).