Sat, May 1, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 112 | 011 | 130 |
| EDM | 210 | 09 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:19EDMEthan BearGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 10:48CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 18:54EDMJosh ArchibaldENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
- P3 19:34EDMDarnell NurseENAssists: Josh Archibald, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:55CGYJuuso Välimäki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22EDMEthan Bear: Interference2 min
- P1 12:11EDMDarnell Nurse: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:58CGYMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:33EDMKailer Yamamoto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:26CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:26EDMTyson Barrie: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Robinson – Ryan7:08
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:38
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Ritchie – Monahan – Mangiapane8:40
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Dube10:12
xG 0.10–0.43 (18%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev16:19
xG 0.98–0.62 (61%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Stone – Välimäki11:18
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nesterov – Andersson15:03
xG 0.22–0.77 (22%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi – McLeod10:03
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto13:50
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Shore4:55
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Archibald – Kahun – Haas7:24
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Larsson12:56
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear3:43
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse13:37
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).