Mon, May 3, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 110 | 06 | 02 | 229 |
| MTL | 010 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:55MTLTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:21TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake Muzzin, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:08MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:43MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:27TORAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:06TORWilliam Nylander: Interference2 min
- P2 0:44TORNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:17MTLAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:35MTLTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:06MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 5:59TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander8:30
xG 0.57–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Mikheyev6:17
xG 0.41–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Marner – Matthews6:56
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marner – Matthews2:40
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly17:40
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Liljegren10:05
xG 0.54–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Dermott2:48
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Armia – Suzuki8:17
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Perry – Frolik5:58
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Lehkonen2:47
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Anderson – Suzuki2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Kulak7:08
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Edmundson5:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Romanov3:44
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).