Sun, Mar 21, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 112 | 19 | 332 |
| TBL | 110 | 16 | 38 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:00TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:23TBLAlex KillornAssists: Erik Cernak, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:24FLAGustav ForslingPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Frank Vatrano · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:22TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Ross Colton, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 6:25FLAPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 10:56TBLTyler JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 19:45TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Ondrej Palat, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:34TBLBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:22FLAPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:42FLARyan Lomberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:38TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 16:28TBLBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:25TBLBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:02FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:29FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:39FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:39FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:39TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:39TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:33TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Acciari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Huberdeau – Wennberg8:16
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Marchment3:54
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Acciari – Marchment – Lomberg4:06
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov5:36
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Ekblad13:41
xG 0.70–0.71 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Stralman – Weegar2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:14
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Point9:28
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton6:43
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Cirelli8:10
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde7:07
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak3:30
xG 0.50–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak4:35
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Rutta7:08
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).