Fri, May 7, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 211 | 110 | 429 |
| WSH | 18 | 112 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Kevin Hayes · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:19WSHDaniel SprongAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:19PHIWade AllisonAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:45PHIWade AllisonGWGAssists: Philippe Myers, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–1
- P2 18:51WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Brenden Dillon, Lars Eller · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:29PHISean CouturierENAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Brian Elliott · Backhand, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:35WSHDaniel Sprong: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Hayes – Farabee6:39
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Aube-Kubel11:33
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Allison – Patrick6:08
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 2–8goals 0–2
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny11:34
xG 0.32–0.64 (34%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov17:27
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Myers – York2:10
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Braun – York14:37
xG 0.54–1.04 (34%)attempts 18–21goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Sheary12:47
xG 0.81–0.29 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Mantha – Sprong14:47
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:43
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Wilson – Raffl – Carr10:52
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – van Riemsdyk16:46
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov18:16
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
- Chara – Jensen11:37
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 4–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).