Thu, May 6, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 26 | 112 | 423 |
| PIT | 210 | 313 | 311 | 834 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45BUFDrake CaggiulaAssists: Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:57PITJeff CarterAssists: Jared McCann, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:39PITJeff CarterPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 3:32BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 4:36PITJeff CarterAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 5:13BUFDrake CaggiulaAssists: Colin Miller, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 6:26PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 7:25PITJared McCannGWGAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 3:02PITJeff CarterAssists: Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–6
- P3 6:25PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–7
- P3 9:45BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–7
- P3 13:05PITKasperi KapanenAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.06 xG4–8
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:18BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:16PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P3 7:58PITJason Zucker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Murray – Caggiula9:37
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Bjork – Olofsson15:11
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–3
- Skinner – Cozens – Ruotsalainen9:43
xG 0.05–0.53 (8%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Asplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt12:14
xG 0.39–1.12 (26%)attempts 5–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Miller – Bryson12:22
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 1–3
- Ristolainen – Samuelsson19:12
xG 0.51–1.11 (32%)attempts 7–20goals 0–2
- Jokiharju – Dahlin19:02
xG 0.38–1.14 (25%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Gaudreau – McCann12:18
xG 0.83–0.12 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 4–0
- Sceviour – Blueger – Aston-Reese9:10
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Malkin – Zucker – Kapanen12:35
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:37
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin21:04
xG 0.94–0.36 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Pettersson – Marino16:14
xG 1.06–0.53 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Ceci – Friedman13:39
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).