Fri, May 7, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 311 | 213 | 536 |
| CBJ | 111 | 18 | 05 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43CBJGavin BayreutherAssists: Liam Foudy, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 7:48CBJNathan GerbeAssists: Eric Robinson, Vladislav Gavrikov · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 13:50DETJoseph VelenoPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:48DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Mathias Brome, Michael Rasmussen · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 16:52DETJakub VranaGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 17:58DETVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Sam Gagner, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.71 xG4–2
- P3 19:12DETVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:20DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:17CBJAndrew Peeke: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:35CBJKevin Stenlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Smith – Veleno9:09
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Brome11:50
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Rasmussen – Zadina5:03
xG 0.02–0.03 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Vrana – Rasmussen – Zadina5:49
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCholowski – Hronek15:14
xG 0.87–0.50 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Stecher2:20
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom14:05
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Domi – Robinson2:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Stenlund – Laine3:58
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gerbe – MacInnis – Robinson6:12
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Grigorenko – Roslovic – Bemstrom11:04
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Peeke16:43
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
- Harrington – Bayreuther14:00
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Jones18:08
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).