Sat, May 8, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 17 | 013 | 124 |
| NYI | 112 | 211 | 24 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:01NYIJordan EberleAssists: Mathew Barzal, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 4:58NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Matt Tennyson, Michael McLeod · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:00NYIBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 12:40NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 3:32NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 4:09NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:12NJDJack Hughes: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47NJDMichael McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:53NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:43NYICasey Cizikas: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:45NJDWill Butcher: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Boqvist – Foote4:30
xG 0.43–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Sharangovich – Hughes4:21
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Boqvist – Foote3:47
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bratt – Kuokkanen – Hischier4:33
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Severson15:29
xG 1.12–0.69 (62%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher2:54
xG 0.10–0.05 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Siegenthaler3:24
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Pageau – Wahlstrom11:09
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Barzal11:38
xG 0.59–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier11:22
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Zajac – Martin – Cizikas11:20
xG 0.32–0.87 (27%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:02
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Leddy – Mayfield17:09
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Greene – Pulock2:52
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).