Tue, Oct 12, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 214 | 18 | 331 |
| VGK | 26 | 117 | 17 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:36VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 6:43VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Nicolas Hague, Mark Stone · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 11:32SEARyan DonatoAssists: Vince Dunn, Joonas Donskoi · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 12:44SEAJared McCannAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 7:58SEAMorgan GeekieAssists: Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 8:33VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:27VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:15SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:59SEAJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P2 3:10SEAMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:21VGKZach Whitecloud: Holding2 min
- P3 10:15VGKChandler Stephenson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:15SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 10:57VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCann won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Donskoi – Wennberg9:16
xG 0.71–0.08 (90%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Tanev – Bastian2:27
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Donato – Tanev – Geekie2:44
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Donato – Appleton – Geekie2:32
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Fleury13:45
xG 0.89–0.27 (77%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak13:39
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Dunn – Lauzon9:34
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:28
xG 0.80–0.42 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Kolesar – Patrick4:02
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Krebs – Dorofeyev2:18
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Kolesar – Krebs2:18
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo16:43
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore10:48
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud9:52
xG 0.40–0.61 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).