Wed, Oct 13, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 011 | 012 | 132 |
| TOR | 19 | 014 | 17 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Josh Anderson, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:12TORPierre EngvallPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:06TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:44MTLBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:13MTLAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:02TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:02TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:18TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:56TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:13MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Drouin – Dvorak12:41
xG 0.91–0.65 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Perreault – Paquette – Lehkonen4:51
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield11:20
xG 0.43–0.44 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Armia – Evans8:05
xG 0.25–0.85 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Chiarot13:53
xG 0.66–0.49 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot2:15
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak14:23
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kase – Kampf10:13
xG 0.87–0.37 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Bunting10:42
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Ritchie – Marner10:59
xG 0.84–0.62 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Amadio7:24
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Sandin14:07
xG 1.16–0.43 (73%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:35
xG 1.08–0.54 (67%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:21
xG 0.45–0.79 (36%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).