Sat, Oct 16, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 110 | 023 | 141 |
| DET | 15 | 110 | 16 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05DETRobby FabbriAssists: Marc Staal, Gustav Lindstrom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:56VANConor GarlandAssists: Bo Horvat, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:42DETFilip ZadinaPPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:02DETSam GagnerENAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 19:41DETNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P2 5:55VANJason Dickinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35DETGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:35VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:20VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P3 2:12DETVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:52DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:05VANConor Garland: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 11:05VANBo Horvat: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:05DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:05DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58DETLucas Raymond: Holding2 min
- P3 19:57VANAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57VANAlex Chiasson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:57DETFilip Hronek: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Horvat – Garland8:03
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Miller – Pettersson – Hoglander8:56
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Dowling – Lammikko – Podkolzin4:46
xG 0.19–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Dickinson – Highmore5:30
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson10:51
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Rathbone7:46
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Hughes3:47
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Suter – Zadina7:46
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Raymond10:18
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Rasmussen7:38
xG 0.01–0.12 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Rowney – Stephens – Smith6:52
xG 0.01–0.38 (2%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Seider13:41
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindstrom9:32
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek13:27
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).