Sat, Oct 16, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 08 | 210 | 332 |
| NSH | 014 | 115 | 111 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:54NSHRyan JohansenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 14:00CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Martin Necas, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:48CARTeuvo TeravainenENGWGAssists: Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
- P3 19:15NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:29CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:00NSHTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:23NSHPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:54CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:18NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:27NSHLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:59CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:26CARVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Necas – Svechnikov2:26
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Lorentz6:04
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho3:42
xG 0.09–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast10:49
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – DeAngelo8:06
xG 0.70–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:01
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Slavin – Bear16:05
xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Grimaldi – Glass6:07
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg2:15
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg12:01
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Granlund – Kunin – Tolvanen9:12
xG 0.02–0.23 (10%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro12:40
xG 0.72–0.38 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier7:34
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Josi – Carrier3:42
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).