Tue, Oct 19, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 07 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 229 |
| PIT | 07 | 19 | 07 | 05 | 1 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:50DALMichael RafflAssists: Radek Faksa, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:26PITJohn MarinoAssists: Brock McGinn, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 2. DAL Radek Faksa stopped
- 3. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 4. DAL Joe Pavelski scored
- 5. PIT Jeff Carter scored
- 6. DAL Alexander Radulov scored
Penalties (2)
- P3 9:28PITJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28DALLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Glendening – Kiviranta4:14
xG 0.26–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Kero3:44
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hintz – Peterson – Kiviranta3:18
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Hintz – Peterson5:11
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Hanley15:58
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen19:27
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Suter – Sekera17:11
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese15:05
xG 0.83–0.03 (96%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Boyle – Simon – O'Connor8:09
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Guentzel – Heinen14:04
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues13:02
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino18:18
xG 0.56–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel12:46
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Matheson – Marino2:20
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).