Tue, Oct 19, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 18 | 114 | 327 |
| WSH | 219 | 28 | 213 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:46COLJ.T. CompherSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 16:53WSHNick JensenAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 3:12COLDarren HelmAssists: Logan O'Connor, Bowen Byram · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 14:47WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P2 16:41WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 0:39WSHNic DowdAssists: Nick Jensen, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 16:54COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 17:39WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:09COLNazem Kadri: Embellishment2 min
- P1 9:09WSHAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:39COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:13WSHDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P2 6:23WSHConor Sheary: Holding2 min
- P3 4:47WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:28COLNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:40COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:38WSHGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Compher2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Jost – O'Connor4:01
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:16
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Jost3:34
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram4:23
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram7:07
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar8:43
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 4–11goals 0–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Sheary – McMichael8:48
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Sprong8:49
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:24
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:01
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk11:49
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Orlov – Jensen14:42
xG 0.64–0.38 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:51
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).