Thu, Oct 21, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 3, Nashville Predators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 012 | 28 | 330 |
| NSH | 012 | 112 | 05 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Sammy Blais, Alexis Lafrenière · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:01NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Ryan Johansen, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 10:53NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Sammy Blais, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 19:54NYRBarclay GoodrowENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:24NYRSammy Blais: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:07NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:14NSHTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:52NSHMatt Benning: Elbowing2 min
- P2 1:52NYRDryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:52NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:53NSHTanner Jeannot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:44NYRSammy Blais: Interference2 min
- P3 1:50NYRBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Panarin11:56
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Blais – Chytil – Lafrenière8:26
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Hunt – Rooney7:11
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Barron6:48
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:18
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Trouba – Lindgren2:01
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Lundkvist11:40
xG 0.43–0.44 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Sissons – Jeannot7:59
xG 0.56–0.33 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Granlund – Trenin – Tomasino3:09
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Novak – Tolvanen – Tomasino4:47
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Granlund – Trenin – Kunin6:36
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro15:01
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning7:59
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Josi – Ekholm2:30
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).