Thu, Oct 21, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 017 | 012 | 139 |
| WPG | 14 | 115 | 38 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Kevin Shattenkirk · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 4:10WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Kyle Connor, Evgeny Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:01WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 1:30WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:11WPGKyle ConnorENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–4
- P3 18:46WPGKyle ConnorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:17WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:23WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:05WPGLogan Stanley: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Rakell – Zegras10:52
xG 0.99–0.62 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Milano – Terry10:58
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Lundeström10:05
xG 0.43–0.22 (65%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Groulx9:29
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale16:18
xG 1.12–0.16 (87%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson13:15
xG 0.89–0.59 (60%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura11:52
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Copp – Ehlers12:46
xG 0.88–0.79 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois11:30
xG 0.10–0.58 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Vesalainen9:44
xG 0.01–0.52 (1%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley8:27
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Stanley2:17
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Beaulieu2:22
xG 0.06–0.04 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).