Thu, Oct 21, 2021·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 211 | 211 | 531 |
| ARI | 011 | 09 | 18 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:02EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Zack Kassian, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:31EDMZach HymanSHGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 8:53EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 1:25ARIDysin MayoAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 9:05EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 10:58EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:29EDMZack Kassian: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:19EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 5:27EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding2 min
- P3 8:18ARIJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:47ARINick Schmaltz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:17EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:17EDMZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:21
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Kassian – Foegele – Ryan11:03
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Turris – Shore – Perlini7:30
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse17:56
xG 0.94–0.36 (72%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Keith – Ceci17:30
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Bouchard12:07
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Jaskin – Schmaltz4:23
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Kessel – Boyd4:45
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Jaskin – Fischer5:30
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller4:44
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo12:14
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Timmins – Lyubushkin15:24
xG 0.48–0.43 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Stralman – Chychrun16:56
xG 0.33–1.00 (25%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).