Fri, Oct 22, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 111 | 18 | 426 |
| BUF | 015 | 011 | 110 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 15:50BOSTomas NosekGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Taylor Hall · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 5:17BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: Brad Marchand, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 14:35BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:12BOSTaylor HallENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:19BOSErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:34BOSJohn Moore: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:50BOSTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:00BUFDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:02BOSTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:25
xG 0.75–0.09 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Coyle – Hall – Nosek6:03
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Haula – Nosek – DeBrusk2:46
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Blidh – Frederic – Kuhlman6:03
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy13:00
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Reilly – McAvoy2:09
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Forbort – McAvoy2:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (3%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Thompson10:18
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen5:40
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Hinostroza – Cozens11:09
xG 0.77–0.69 (53%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Bjork4:17
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bryson15:30
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Hagg11:17
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Butcher – Dahlin18:37
xG 0.60–1.31 (31%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).